In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, the Executive and Education Committees have held separate telecons to mitigate risk to the organization and provide our members helpful, and hopeful, ways to support our integrative community. We recognize that we are all sharing tips, case studies, following newly published studies and helping formulate actions and response to not only our patients, but our staffs and families. In the spirit of our Collaboration Cures partner, AAPMD, we have already sent important updates and resources to our members. With the ongoing and unprecedented interruption of life as we all know it, we hope you find this site and interactive blog format helpful as we encourage you to submit questions and SHARE your experiences.
 
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 Updates from Dr. Ahvie Herskowitz 3/30/2020
Dr. Herskowitz has been educating clients and the national medical community (as President of ACAM) as to the role of modulating our immune systems over the next year, as our “new normal.” Our approach is using IV (intravenous) immune stacks and stem cell therapies, which have been validated in China, Italy, and the USA.
Dr. Herskowitz’s key lessons from COVID-19 is to “fine tune” and optimize, which has been Dr. Herskowitz’s motto for years, as both a trained Cardiologist and Immunologist.
When the overactive immune system attacks a virus, it produces a large number of inflammatory markers over a short period time, which can lead to a severe cytokine storm and subsequent tissue damage. It is believed that the main reason for the lung damage in COVID-19 may be due to this virus induced exaggerated immune response and cytokine storm.
Stem cell IV therapies have been shown to help immunomodulation and, in limited clinical trials, tissue repair and greatly contributed to the improved
outcome of COVID-19 patients, click here.

 COVID-19: Analysis and Predictions for the Beginning of April

Dr. David Ho is a virus expert from Cal Tech who was interviewed ten days ago and published on March 20th. On March 18, there were 8,700 worldwide deaths from COVID19. Today, ten days later, there are over 36,000 deaths — the calculated doubling time worldwide is now every 4.5–5 days.

After we in Europe and the USA reach our respective peaks over the next month, the worldwide numbers will likely be dominated by South America, Africa, the Middle East, and other areas that may remain hidden due to censorship (i.e., Pakistan).

Let’s see what may happen WORLDWIDE in the 1, 2, and 4 week period? Based on a long list of assumptions and the data today, worldwide mortality will likely rise from 36,000 today to 60,000–80,000 in one week and up to 250,000–500,000 worldwide deaths in one month.

WHERE ARE WE IN THE USA?
We may likely see death rates rise from the current roughly 2,800 today to 5,000+ in 7–10 days. The USA remains a small minority of worldwide deaths, but let’s keep this in context of per capita — our mortality rate has remained steady at <2.0% (1.7% today vs worldwide 4.7%) even though the number of USA cases appear to be leading the world.

Every day, we are guided by the data, and reliably predict where hotspots are blossoming and when a region has seen its peak effect for “the first wave.” We can predict these with some level of confidence. While we don’t know how NY State will handle their regional crisis, and how other high-risk regions will fare, more data is suggesting that Hydroxychloroquine and Azithromycin is a very effective therapy. The sooner we gain access and test this combination and other “experimental” therapies to treat symptomatic persons, the faster the surge effect on our medical system will be abated.


View the Source Here

 
  Webinar: 'The Difference a Day Makes"  


 Webinar: Survival For Your Practice and Team: The COVID-19 Challenge

 
 Recent Videos with Ahvie Herskowitz, MD
     

 
 COVID-19 Trends for the USA for Next Week
MARCH 23, 2020

From ACAM President Dr. Ahvie Herskowitz, MD

Our hearts go out to all who are suffering around the globe from COVID-19. As a former New Yorker, I am particularly concerned and upset for our friends and neighbors in NYC and pray for their wellbeing.

As you can see from the chart below, the USA death numbers from WHO are now above 400 (actual numbers from US sources are now above 500, as of this morning). We passed 100 deaths on March 19, as did the United Kingdom; Italy reached this threshold two weeks earlier; France on March 16, and Spain on March 14. The slope of our USA mortality rate is higher than in the United Kingdom (as of today, we have almost doubled their mortality rate).

Based on the European experience, five days from now, we can expect roughly a 5-7 fold increase in deaths in the USA. If we follow in Italy’s footsteps, we will have a 10-fold increase 10-14 days from now. THIS DOES NOT MEAN WE WILL CONTINUE ON THIS PATH MUCH LONGER, SINCE THE INCREASE IN MORTALITY RATES IN ITALY ARE MUCH LOWER THIS PAST WEEK, AS COMPARED TO TWO WEEKS AGO!!!

In California, we are staying more stable, and in San Francisco, our mortality curves remain flat. Let’s hope the same holds true for San Jose, Sacramento, and Los Angeles.

LESSON: Regions that have implemented “Shelter At Home” earlier, seem to be doing better. THIS WORKS!! And in combination with testing and quarantining, THESE IMPLEMENTATIONS REALLY WORK!! LOOK AT KOREA and their incredible data with stable numbers!

 
 COVID-19 Data - The Big Picture
MARCH 22, 2020

From ACAM President Dr. Ahvie Herskowitz, MD and Devin Wilson, ND

In those countries that have suppressed the COVID 19 outbreaks — China, Korea, Japan, Singapore, and Taiwan, there are very few new cases.

Reversal of their local epidemics took roughly 4-8 weeks of diligent care to reduce viral exposures. Mortality rates varied from 4.0% in China to 1.7% in Korea and were primarily seen in the elderly and patients with other pre-existing medical conditions.

Social distancing and expanded testing with isolation worked! Life is now slowly returning to normal in these countries, after a relatively short period. Governments acted, and there are NO signals of any second wave of cases. LESSON: the sooner a country acts, the lesser the burden.

In Europe, like in China, countries that delayed social distancing, mortality rates now reflect overburdened healthcare systems — 8.6% in Italy and 5.3% in Spain.

In the USA, we have regions that electively “locked down” earlier than others Ᾱ SF Bay area acted earlier — a total of 9 deaths (1.6%) vs. NYC’s 44 deaths (5.3%), and Seattle’s 83 deaths (5.4%).

Our USA numbers for confirmed cases (24,142) are not yet meaningful since testing is still not widely available; neither is our low mortality rate of 1.2% (288 total deaths), since our healthcare systems in certain locations (i.e., New York City) are only now coming under great pressure.

We can expect surges in these numbers all over the country and in key states like NY, Washington, Florida, NJ, Illinois, Michigan, Colorado, and Texas.

BUT…

The sooner our entire nation goes into lockdown mode, the faster we will recover! Statistical models demonstrate that the duration will be somewhere in the 3-7 week range.

While younger populations and persons in very good health are unlikely to be seriously injured by this virus, we can all be asymptomatic carriers. The faster we bring down our collective exposures to one another, the quicker we will recover.

Click here for some good news on potential therapies.
 
 Immunosuppression and Patient Variability in Relation to COVID-19
From ACAM President Dr. Ahvie Herskowitz:
Most of the patient variability (how sick do you get) lies in the effect of medical preconditions on immunity… . i.e., the older we are, the more we likely have conditions that reduce our overall immunity. As you can see from the graph, a clear increase in susceptibility to getting very ill and dying from COVID-19 occurs above the age of 50. But, you are probably asking why this should happen at such a young age?

The most likely explanation is that many of us are relatively immunosuppressed due to our inflammatory lifestyle and our levels of circulating Natural Killer Cells (our innate surveillance system) are lower than they should be ... this is the case for most of us, and NOT only for those on steroids or chemotherapy.

But, there is more to a true risk assessment. My early research career at Johns Hopkins emphasized that there is also an immune genetic component — our genetics dictate how each of us will respond to any given virus (in an organized modulated way, or a dysregulated exaggerated way – a sort of "overreaction"). Since the latter is not predictable in advance, modulating our immune systems not to overreact is one key element to staying out of trouble with any potential exposure to COVID-19.

Immunological Arguments for Taking Social Distancing Seriously
From ACAM President Dr. Ahvie Herskowitz:
We have multiple strategies in place for primary prevention — hand washing, social distancing, wearing gloves outdoors, taking vitamins/supplements and keeping our diets healthy, sleeping well, reducing stress and avoiding alcohol — these reduce our risk of getting infected. Since the science of viral infections (whether influenza or our other epidemic of Lyme disease) teaches us, once infected a person cannot predict how their immune response genes will regulate their acute response to any given new virus. This is why small handfuls of 40-something year old patients, who are extremely fit and healthy, have succumbed to COVID-19. This is also why small numbers of patients have died from direct viral mediated heart damage leading to heart failure (and not from respiratory failure). Different patterns of responses are always to be anticipated, and most are not predictable.

But, that is not all. We know that many more people infected will remain asymptomatic, and asymptomatic persons drive community spread. So, is my risk from COVID19 over after I get infected and survive the first 2 months? The answer is no! The end of the virus incubation period may not be the end of organ injury, in that delayed autoimmunity will happen in a significant subset of persons, whether they were initially symptomatic or asymptomatic, way beyond the period that the virus is still infectious.

With this said, the way one avoids infection and modulates their immune response early has long-lasting impact. The use of all the adaptogenic and immune modulating practices bolded above, as well as many others, will down regulate a long-term, chronic stress response. This chronic stress response invites post-viral autoimmune conditions to develop (thyroid, heart, GI tract and liver). Our primary prevention strategies for reducing risk of infection, therefore, also support reducing our risk of post-viral autoimmune disorders after we get infected and “recover”… whether we were asymptomatic or experienced symptoms in early phases. Since our continued immune responses can ultimately lead to post-viral autoimmuity, avoiding the infection is where the smart money is.

Social distancing is the most important tool we have now. Perhaps this will save us from what was surely an inevitable lockdown like in Italy, Spain and France, and probably next in NYC.

 

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